UW Covid Projections, August 1, 2020

Revisiting the Covid Models on August 1

When the Covid-19 pandemic began, we all became amateur epidemiologists, learning about R-naughts, exponential growth, and death models. When March dawned, there were fewer than a hundred cases in the US, but things were bad in other places. Sometime in that period the model at the University of Washington became the go-to for doomscrollers who obsessed over predicted peak dates and numbers. Models were magnetizing…